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Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious
for some reason part of this reminds me of this
only when we all agree that something is beautifull that ugliness comes into view.
only when we all agree that something is beautifull that ugliness comes into view.
Comments
[chref=47]Without stirring abroad, one can know the whole world[/chref]; or,
[chref=71]To know yet to think that one does not know is best;
Not to know yet to think that one knows will lead to difficulty[/chref]; or even
[chref=81]He who knows has no wide learning; he who has wide learning does not know[/chref].
So I say, 'Don't trust thought any further than we can throw it'. Truth, reality, and mystery all share the same side of the coin. Alas, being so [chref=15]murky[/chref] over there drives us to either keep clinging to our cherished beliefs, or grasp for solid answers concocted from rationalized analysis. The good news: the way scientific research is progressing (esp. quantum physics and biology), humanity appears to be heading steadily toward a Taoist world view. Perhaps by the year 3007? Hmm... still that's only 1000 years from now. We haven't come all that far since 1007, so perhaps it will take awhile longer. But that's okay. Taoists are patient!
Here is some of the review:
Gigerenzer explains why our intuition is such a powerful decision-making tool. Drawing on a decade of research at the Max Plank Institute, Gigerenzer demonstrates that our gut feelings are actually the result of unconscious mental processes—processes that apply rules of thumb that we've derived from our environment and prior experiences. The value of these unconscious rules lies precisely in their difference from rational analysis—they take into account only the most useful bits of information rather than attempting to evaluate all possible factors.
The key concept—rules of thumb serve us as effectively as complex analytic processes, if not more so—is simple to grasp. Gigerenzer draws on his own research as well as that of other psychologists to show how even experts rely on intuition to shape their judgment, going so far as to ignore available data in order to make snap decisions. Sometimes, the solution to a complex problem can be boiled down to one easily recognized factor, he says, and the author uses case studies to show that the Take the Best approach often works.
On the other hand, I like what is said about complex problems being boiled down to one easily recognized factor. I think that's true - unfortunately we often ignore something basic, in favor of whatever desire is pulling us the strongest. I don't think using a complex analytical process works, because we can too easily end up latching onto the thinking that justifies our current desire, while ignoring the thinking that doesn't justify our desire.
These days I find myself more and more going to "2 out of 3". As in, there are usually 3 main factors in a decision/situation I'm having difficulty with. It may be possible to have 2 aspects, but not all 3. I can't have my cake and eat it too. For example, earlier this year I was looking into voicemail systems for the medical office I work at. We wanted simplicity, a full range of features, and low cost. I certainly couldn't find a system that was all 3. I do find that holding to the simplicity aspect, keeps the process much saner. The question is always, what am I willing to let go of?
Well, except the first one we hired after moving to the Mother Lode; I must have picked him because he was very handsome and had very cute kids, but he proved to be a total flake. I attribute that mistake to a change in culture, from suburban to rural.
I'm happy to hear that gut feeling works. My brain is so non-linear it used to worry me how it goes all in circles. So this is good news to me.